Chicago soybean futures rose to a two-year high after weather models pointed to a prolonged dry spell across Mato Grosso and Parana, Brazil’s top growing states.

Brazil’s national crop agency trimmed its harvest forecast, citing rainfall roughly 30% below the seasonal average during the critical pod-filling stage.

The shortfall comes as Chinese buyers, who source close to two-thirds of their soybean imports from Brazil, have begun fielding offers from US Gulf exporters to cover autumn shipments.

Traders are watching the next two weeks of rainfall closely, noting that a swift return of showers could still salvage yields, while prolonged dryness may push prices toward contract highs last seen in 2024.