Lithium carbonate prices jumped 12% over the past two weeks, climbing to roughly $16,800 per tonne as battery manufacturers race to secure feedstock for a wave of new electric vehicle and grid-storage capacity coming online in late 2026.

Traders point to a combination of project delays in Argentina’s lithium triangle, weaker-than-expected ramp-ups at Australian spodumene mines, and aggressive restocking by Chinese cathode producers ahead of the third-quarter EV launch cycle. Inventories at major Chinese ports have fallen to their lowest level since early 2024.

Analysts at several investment banks have raised their year-end price targets, with some forecasting lithium carbonate could test $19,000 per tonne if supply additions continue to disappoint. The rally is also reviving interest in dormant North American and European projects that were shelved during the 2024 price collapse.

Automakers, meanwhile, are renewing long-term offtake negotiations. Industry executives warn that without a meaningful supply response over the next 18 months, battery cell costs could rise for the first time in three years — putting pressure on EV affordability targets across major markets.