The World Trade Organization has revised upward its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026, now projecting an expansion of 3.1%, up from its earlier estimate of 2.7%. The revision reflects stronger-than-expected demand from emerging markets and a gradual easing of geopolitical tensions in key trading corridors.

The updated forecast comes as global GDP growth shows resilience, with developing economies in Asia and Africa driving much of the trade volume increase. Agricultural commodities and manufactured goods are expected to lead the expansion, while services trade continues its post-pandemic recovery trajectory.

However, the WTO has flagged several downside risks, including the potential for renewed protectionist measures, currency volatility in emerging markets, and the uncertain impact of AI-driven automation on manufacturing trade flows.

Regional trade agreements are also playing an increasingly important role, with the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) now fully operational and showing measurable effects on intra-Asian trade volumes.