Iron ore prices on the Singapore Exchange dropped below $95 per tonne, hitting their lowest level in 11 months as Beijing’s renewed mandate to cap 2026 crude steel output undermines demand from the world’s largest consumer.

Chinese mills cut hot metal output by an estimated 4% over the past month, with several integrated producers in Hebei and Shandong extending blast furnace maintenance schedules. Port inventories climbed to a 14-month high above 145 million tonnes, signaling that physical demand is failing to keep pace with seaborne arrivals.

The big four miners — Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP, and Fortescue — are nonetheless on track to ship record volumes this year. That looming supply wave, combined with the structural slowdown in Chinese construction, has prompted several brokerages to cut their second-half iron ore forecasts to the $80s range.

Steelmakers in Southeast Asia and the Middle East may absorb some of the displaced volumes, but analysts warn the long-term outlook depends heavily on whether China can engineer a credible recovery in property and infrastructure investment in the second half of 2026.