Cocoa futures have climbed toward $4,180 per tonne — the highest level in nearly two weeks — driven by a combination of short covering and fresh supply concerns out of Ivory Coast. The world’s largest cocoa producer has seen heavy rainfall cause widespread flooding in key growing regions, disrupting farming activity, farm access roads, and logistics corridors that link inland farms to the ports at Abidjan and San-Pédro.

The flooding is particularly significant because it follows a period of relative stability in cocoa prices. Ivory Coast had raised its 2025/26 crop forecast to 2.2 million metric tonnes in May, helping calm markets that had traded as high as $10,000 per tonne during the record scarcity of late 2024. The latest weather event has reignited concerns that supply quality and volume may disappoint in the tail end of the main crop season.

For West African commodity exporters, the situation illustrates a persistent challenge: climate variability continues to introduce unpredictable volatility into soft commodity prices regardless of longer-term production trends. Buyers in Europe and North America — who source from both Ivory Coast and neighbouring Ghana — are watching closely as they negotiate forward contracts for the 2025/26 season.

Cocoa prices remain down approximately 55% from their April 2024 all-time highs, but the bounce from recent lows signals that supply-side risks have not fully unwound. Traders with exposure to West African agriculture should monitor rainfall patterns and logistics updates closely over the coming weeks as the mid-crop harvest window approaches.