Average global container shipping rates have held in the $2,100–$2,200 per 40-foot equivalent unit (FEU) range through May 2026, reflecting a market in a state of cautious equilibrium. According to BRF Logistics, rates remain stable with slight upward pressure — a product of ongoing geopolitical disruptions in key corridors and lingering demand uncertainty as shippers wait to see whether the US-Iran ceasefire translates into restored Strait of Hormuz access.

The Red Sea route, which had been largely avoided since Houthi attacks intensified in late 2023, has seen some shipping lines consider partial resumption of sailings in 2026. Freight forwarders including DSV have noted that a full return to the shorter Red Sea route would provide downward pressure on rates by cutting transit times and fuel consumption. However, the potential for port congestion at European hubs as vessel schedules readjust remains a concern that could delay the benefit to shippers.

For importers and exporters across sub-Saharan Africa, current rate levels present a challenging but navigable environment. Rates remain well above pre-2021 norms but have come off the extreme peaks seen during the Red Sea crisis. Businesses sourcing goods from Asia or shipping commodities into Europe should factor in continued variability through Q3, particularly if Hormuz shipping resumes and triggers a reconfiguration of vessel positioning globally.

Freight forwarders advise shippers to lock in medium-term contracts rather than rely on spot rates as the market transitions. If ceasefire terms hold and Hormuz reopens for tanker and container traffic, a rate correction downward is plausible by Q4 2026 — but only if geopolitical risk does not re-escalate before then.