Henry Hub natural gas futures fell more than 4% this week after updated weather models pointed to milder temperatures across much of the U.S. Midwest and Northeast, easing near-term demand for power-plant cooling.

The pullback came despite storage levels that remain slightly below the five-year seasonal average, underscoring how sensitive prices have become to short-term forecast shifts.

Record output from Appalachian shale basins has kept supply ample, offsetting steady growth in feedgas deliveries to Gulf Coast LNG export terminals.

Traders said the market’s direction into autumn will hinge on whether hurricane activity disrupts Gulf production or export facilities in the coming weeks.